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What will your reforestation carbon project earn, and what will it cost?

Credits per hectare, costs, payback year and break-even size, from your area and credit price.

Your project

ha
1,236 acres
USD per credit
Sources: 15–20
Natural or assisted regrowth in seasonal moist forest. About 11.5 tCO₂e per hectare a year in the first 20 years.
Buffer by risk score, at least 12%; we assume 15%. Credits only after verification.

What it earns and costs

6.3 credits per hectare a year; $1.3M of costs over 30 years; the project pays back in year 20.

Credits per hectare a year
6.3
average over 30 years
Pays back
Year 20
cash stays positive to year 30
Costs, 30 years
$1.3M
$534k before the first credit
Cash after 30 years
$146k
$1.4M of credit sales
Credits in 30 years
93,960
500 ha
Break-even size
415 ha
covers all costs in 30 years
Change the costs
Cash so far, by year
How a hectare’s 11.5 t a year become 7.5 credits
Trees remove
11.5
− Baseline
−1.2
− Uncertainty
−1.0
− Leakage
−0.5
− Buffer pool
−1.4
After deductions
7.5

tCO₂e per hectare a year, while the forest is young. One credit is one tonne of CO₂ removed.

Year by year
YearCredits issuedRevenueCostsCash so far
1––$447,000-$447,000
2––$10,000-$457,000
3––$10,000-$467,000
4––$10,000-$477,000
518,630$279,450$56,785-$254,335
6––$20,000-$274,335
7––$20,000-$294,335
8––$20,000-$314,335
9––$20,000-$334,335
1018,630$279,450$66,785-$121,670
11––$20,000-$141,670
12––$20,000-$161,670
13––$20,000-$181,670
14––$20,000-$201,670
1518,630$279,450$66,785$10,995
16––$20,000-$9,005
17––$20,000-$29,005
18––$20,000-$49,005
19––$20,000-$69,005
2018,630$279,450$66,785$143,660
21––$20,000$123,660
22––$20,000$103,660
23––$20,000$83,660
24––$20,000$63,660
259,720$145,800$64,736$144,725
26––$20,000$124,725
27––$20,000$104,725
28––$20,000$84,725
29––$20,000$64,725
309,720$145,800$64,736$145,789

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Costs

Defaults sit inside the ranges published sources give. Replace them with your own quotes: they move the answer more than anything else here.

USD, once
Feasibility, project design document, validation and registration. Sources: 51,750–311,000
USD
Verifier, field inventory and monitoring report. Sources: 32,500–52,500
USD per ha, once
Sources: 226–1,263
USD per ha a year
From year 6; planting covers the first years of care. Sources: 2–213
USD a year
Staff, registry account and anything that does not grow with area. Sources: 4,750–10,350
% of credit revenue
Kenya: at least 40% of the previous year’s earnings less costs, on public and community land. Plan Vivo: at least 60%, in cash, training or in kind
Growth, deductions and timing
tCO₂e per ha a year
tCO₂e per ha a year
year
years
%
what would have grown anyway
%
%
farming or grazing pushed elsewhere
%
held back against fire and other losses
year
years
USD per credit issued
Where the defaults come from, and what we assumed

Our assumptions

  • Baseline 10% and leakage 5% of removals: VM0047 sets both from each project’s own data.
  • A 15% buffer for Verra, above the 12% floor; the real share comes from the project’s risk score.
  • Buffer base: for Verra we take the buffer from removals after baseline and uncertainty, side by side with leakage, reading “change in carbon stocks” (Methodology Requirements §3.8.8) as that amount; Gold Standard and Plan Vivo take theirs from the credits left after leakage.
  • Uncertainty 10% for Verra, VM0047’s minimum for forecasts; once measured, it deducts only the half-width of the 90% confidence interval above 10 points (§8.5.1, Equation 28). 10% for Plan Vivo, and none for Gold Standard while plots meet ±20% at 90% confidence.
  • Plan Vivo: 60% of credit revenue goes to participants by default, the rule’s minimum; planting, training and other in-kind support count toward it, so lower the share by what your planting and upkeep costs already cover.
  • First verification in year 5, then every 5 years.
  • USD 150,000 before the first credit and USD 10,000 a year to run the project: inside the sources’ ranges, the first below their middle and the second near their top.
  • Upkeep of USD 20 a hectare a year from year 6, inside the range for the first five years of assisted regrowth.
  • Root ratios: IPCC Table 4.4 sets them by above-ground biomass (up to 125 t a hectare, and above); we switch at year 20 as a proxy. Teak uses the natural-forest ratio, as Table 4.4 has no planted row for its zone.
Where the numbers come from, step by step: carbon credits per hectare of reforestation and what a reforestation carbon project costs.

A planning estimate from published defaults, checked 1 November 2026. Your plots, your methodology expert and your validation and verification body set the credits a project earns; quotes from them set its costs.

Questions

How it works

Estimate how many carbon credits a reforestation project earns per hectare, what it costs to get there (design, validation, verification, planting, registry fees), when it pays back, and the area at which its fixed costs pay off. Every default is editable and shows its source, or says it is our assumption.

  1. Enter your area and credit price, and pick what grows and the standard you will certify under.
  2. Read credits per hectare, the cash after the project, the payback year and the break-even area.
  3. Replace the cost defaults with your own quotes, and open the details to change growth rates, deductions and the verification schedule.

Read the guide: How many carbon credits does a hectare of reforestation earn? · What a reforestation carbon project costs

Input and output

Input
Project area, what grows (IPCC regrowth or plantation rates), the standard, credit price, and costs: design and validation, each verification, planting per hectare, upkeep, yearly fixed costs and the share of revenue paid to communities.
Output
Credits per hectare a year, credits and cash over the project, the year it pays back, the area at which it breaks even, the share of removals that become credits, and the year-by-year cash.

Example: input

Tropical moist forest regrowth in the Americas · Verra · USD 15 a credit · 30 years · default costs · 100 ha, then 2,000 ha

Example: output

About 6.3 credits per hectare a year
100 ha: 18,792 credits, −USD 534,842 after 30 years, does not pay back within 30 years
2,000 ha: 375,840 credits, USD 2,698,157 after 30 years, pays back in year 10
Break-even: about 415 ha

Limits

  • It is a planning estimate from published defaults: your own plots, your methodology expert and your verifier set the real numbers.
  • Fees, prices and cost defaults were checked November 1, 2026; registries adjust their fees and credit prices move.
  • Growth uses IPCC Tier 1 defaults for trees above and below ground; soil, dead wood and litter are left out.
  • Baseline and leakage are fixed shares you choose; VM0047 calculates them from a performance benchmark and module VMD0054.
  • Project emissions, such as fuel, fertiliser or burning to prepare the site, are left out; VM0047 deducts them.
  • IPCC Table 4.4 sets root ratios by above-ground biomass (up to 125 t a hectare, and above); it switches at year 20 as a proxy, and teak borrows the natural-forest ratio, as no planted row covers its zone.
  • Registry fees are one rate per credit: Plan Vivo’s drops from USD 0.40 to 0.35 above 50,000 credits a year, and Verra’s levy is charged on the tonnes claimed.
  • Credits are sold when verified, at one price; forward credits, price changes, tax, finance costs and inflation are left out, and cash is not discounted.
  • The cost defaults for design, validation and verification come from studies published in 2011 and 2014 (costs in 2010 and 2011 dollars), the latest primary figures we found.
  • Harvested plantations are capped at their long-term average under Verra, which it does not model.

How many carbon credits does a hectare of reforestation earn?

With IPCC default growth for the young tropical forests in the calculator and our example deductions, about 4 to 8 credits a hectare a year over the first 20 years, and fewer after. A fast plantation such as teak can earn about 12. Your own plots set the real number.

What does it cost to set up a carbon project?

Studies from 2011 and 2014, the latest primary figures we found, put feasibility, the project design document and validation at about USD 45,000 (the low end of Forest Trends’ ranges) to 305,000 (Pearson and colleagues’ largest case) before the first credit, and each verification at about USD 30,000 to 50,000, plus registry fees. Assisted regrowth adds about USD 230 to 1,260 a hectare and planting about USD 220 to 2,260 (2011 USD, including the first years of care).

How big does a reforestation carbon project need to be?

Big enough for its credits to pay the costs that don’t grow with area. With the default costs, which sit inside the published ranges, and USD 15 a credit, a tropical regrowth project under Verra breaks even at about 415 hectares, and at about 230 to 550 hectares across the published ranges for those costs. Grouped projects share them across many landholders.

Is my data uploaded anywhere?

No. The calculation runs in your browser, and the numbers you enter stay there.

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